Rising trade tensions have once again pushed tariff policy to the center of the global economic order, reshaping supply chains, logistics routes and pricing mechanisms.
Over recent years, the United States has expanded tariffs on a wide range of imports—most notably from China—under the banner of protecting domestic production and redefining global value chains. What began with steel and automobiles has gradually widened into a broader regime of reciprocal tariffs, prompting countermeasures from major trading partners and deepening uncertainty in global trade.
Iran is not a direct target of these tariff measures, but its marginal position in global trade does not shield it from spillover effects. Reduced Chinese exports to the US, rising excess supply and the redirection of trade flows are altering global commercial patterns in ways that can indirectly affect Iran’s economy.
These shocks arrive at a time when Iran is already grappling with sanctions, financial constraints and deep structural imbalances, making it especially vulnerable to external disruptions.
Double-Edged Sword
According to Fatemeh Moghimi, a member of the Iran Chamber of Commerce’s board of representatives, US tariff policy has become a double-edged sword. “Washington initially imposed tariffs to support domestic industries such as steel and automobiles, but the policy has created supply bottlenecks for US manufacturers themselves,” she said in an interview with Donya-e-Eqtesad.
Moghimi noted that many American firms now face shortages of intermediate inputs, delaying production and raising costs. “US economists warn that prolonged tariffs could increase unemployment and inflation in the short to medium term,” she added.
The US government has pledged subsidies and compensation to affected firms, but the international response has been swift. The European Union and countries such as Canada have introduced retaliatory measures, intensifying trade frictions.
Reports by international bodies, including UNCTAD, show that escalating trade tensions have already reduced global trade volumes and pushed up prices, with tangible macroeconomic consequences for growth and cross-border investment.
For Iran, the impact is largely indirect but potentially significant. Moghimi argued that trade tensions exacerbate pressures on Iran’s oil exports and foreign exchange market.
“Combined with financial restrictions and Iran’s continued disconnection from mechanisms like FATF, global trade shocks magnify the economic costs of sanctions,” she said. In such an environment, even limited external tensions can quickly translate into household-level welfare losses.
Openings for Iran
Yet both Moghimi and former Trade Promotion Organization head Mohammadreza Modoudi stressed that global disruptions can also create openings.
Modoudi said that China’s exports to the US—estimated at around $500 billion—cannot be easily replaced. “Even capturing a small share of redirected Chinese trade could be meaningful for Iran,” he said. Should the US-China trade conflict intensify, Beijing may seek deeper economic ties with alternative partners, including Iran, provided sanctions risks remain manageable.
Still, Modoudi cautioned that Iran’s share in China’s vast trade portfolio remains marginal. “What is a large number for Iran is negligible for China,” he noted, adding that Beijing may prioritize lower-risk markets in Southeast Asia if political and financial uncertainties persist.
Both experts emphasized that Iran’s main challenge lies not in the scale of global shocks, but in its limited capacity to convert them into opportunities. Weak decision-making frameworks, delayed reforms, corruption and the absence of clearly defined strategic trade partners have constrained Iran’s response.
As Moghimi put it, “Without a coherent roadmap grounded in expert analysis and timely action, Iran risks remaining a bystander in a rapidly changing global trade order.”
