Iran’s inflation rate is on course to reach one of its highest levels on record by the end of the current Iranian year (1404, ending March 2026), according to a new analysis by Donya-e-Eqtesad. Multiple scenarios examined by the daily suggest that year-on-year inflation will remain above 53% and could climb as high as 56% in the coming months.
Based on recent trends, if inflation in the final three months of the year follows the same pace as the previous quarter, point-to-point inflation could reach around 55.6% by year-end.
A more pessimistic scenario—assuming monthly inflation mirrors the sharp rise recorded in Azar (November–December 2025)—puts inflation close to 56%, marking a historic peak.
Even under an optimistic assumption, where inflation aligns with the average of the first nine months of the year, the rate would still stand at about 53.1%. All scenarios point to persistently elevated inflation, making 1404 one of the most inflationary years in Iran’s recent history.
Data released by the Statistical Center of Iran show that monthly inflation rose to 4.2% in Azar (Nov–Dec 2025), up from 3.4% in Aban (Oct–Nov 2025). Year-on-year inflation climbed to 52.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, while average annual inflation reached 42.2%. Analysts expect point-to-point inflation to surpass 55% before the year ends.
Economists attribute the renewed inflationary surge mainly to rapid monetary expansion, driven by government borrowing from the Central Bank. Liquidity growth reached 36.6% in Mordad (July–August 2025) and is believed to have exceeded 40% more recently.
Falling foreign exchange revenues—due to lower oil prices and tighter restrictions—have also weakened the rial, pushing up consumer prices. Heightened political risks, particularly in the post-conflict regional environment, have further fueled inflation expectations.
